Oil Supply Disruptions Could Lead to Significant Price Increases

On March 8, Garrett Jin, a representative of 'BTC OG Insider Whale,' shared insights on X platform regarding the correlation between oil supply gaps and price hikes. According to BlockBeats, historical data shows that a 7% supply gap in 1973 led to a 300% increase in oil prices, a 5% gap in 1979 resulted in a 150% rise, and a 6% gap in 1990 caused a 130% surge. Currently, the potential supply disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is estimated at 15%, significantly higher than past instances. Most institutional models assume this disruption will last only a few days to weeks, but few anticipate it could extend for months. If market consensus on the duration is challenged, more investment may be driven into the market, further escalating oil prices.