Polymarket Predicts High Probability of U.S. Military Entering Iran by April 30

The probability of U.S. military forces entering Iran by April 30 has surged to 96.5% on Polymarket, marking an 11% increase within 24 hours. According to Odaily, this spike reflects heightened speculation in the prediction market. An American government official informed Al Jazeera that the second crew member from a downed F-15E fighter jet has been rescued, although the rescue operation is still ongoing. The rescued crew member is confirmed safe but not yet out of danger, as the rescue team must successfully evacuate from Iran and return safely. Polymarket's rules state that the market will be deemed "yes" if active U.S. military personnel enter Iranian land territory by the specified date (Eastern Time). Special operations forces are included, but intelligence personnel are not. Entry into Iranian waters or airspace does not count.