XRP's Potential Recovery Amid Market Indicators

XRP has been experiencing an eight-month downtrend, with momentum and on-chain indicators reaching levels that have historically aligned with macro bottoms. According to Cointelegraph, data from TradingView shows that the relative strength index (RSI) of the XRP/BTC ratio is at 24, marking the most oversold level since October 2025. Historically, such low RSI levels have signaled market bottoms for the ratio, leading to significant XRP price breakouts against Bitcoin, as observed in late 2024 and 2025. The XRP/BTC pair is currently trading within a long consolidation range, which has previously served as a strong launching pad for the ratio. The last significant bottom for XRP against Bitcoin in this zone occurred in June 2025, initiating a 61% increase in the XRP/BTC ratio and a 92% XRP price rally to a multi-year high of $3.66. Other instances highlighted by the yellow bars in the chart further emphasize the reliability of this level in marking macro bottoms for XRP/BTC. The MVRV Z-score for XRP is near zero, a level that historically aligns with accumulation zones and market bottoms. This suggests that most holders are close to breakeven, reducing sell pressure and indicating potential downside exhaustion. Similar patterns were observed in 2021, 2022, and 2024 before major rallies. Notably, the last time XRP’s MVRV Z-score fell to similar levels in late 2024, it coincided with a macro market bottom at $0.30 and preceded a multi-month rally, with the XRP/USD pair rising 500% to a multi-year high above $3. Currently, the 0.80 MVRV pricing band, which has historically marked cycle bottoms, is at $1.14, coinciding with a 15-month low reached on February 6. These on-chain metrics suggest that XRP is undervalued and may continue its recovery, potentially rising toward $1.70 or higher. Meanwhile, XRP/USD remains cautiously bullish as long as it holds the $1.25-$1.30 support zone. A trader noted that if this zone continues to hold, a short-term bounce towards $1.45 is possible. The importance of this support level is reinforced by cost basis distribution, with nearly 1.73 billion XRP acquired around this price. Below this, the next line of defense is the $1.15 demand zone, where the 200-week simple moving average is located. If XRP/USD drops below this level, it could fall toward the bear flag target of $0.80, or 41% below the current price. As Cointelegraph reported, maintaining the $1.27-$1.30 range would indicate strength among the bulls, who must push the XRP/USD pair toward the $1.61 range high to regain control.