According to Jin10, a report by CITIC Securities indicates that U.S. nonfarm payrolls in April 2026 exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate met expectations at 4.3%. The report suggests that the April data better reflects the current state of the U.S. job market compared to the previous two months. This is attributed to fewer one-time factors in April, a higher response rate from companies, and the smallest impact from the birth-death model in the last four months.
On the demand side, the U.S. job market in April showed overall resilience with marginally increased layoff pressures. On the supply side, while the labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio declined, the participation rate for those aged 25-54 remained stable. This indicates that the decline is not due to a large-scale exit of core labor but rather the effects of aging and retirement.
Regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, CITIC Securities maintains its previous view that if the situation in Iran stabilizes and oil prices fall, leading to a cooling of inflation expectations, there could be a baseline scenario of a 25 basis point rate cut in the second half of the year after Kevin Warsh takes over.
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