UK Retail Sales Disappoint as Market Expects Bank of England to Cut Rates by 66 Basis Points in 2025

The UK’s weak retail sales data has intensified market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in 2025. According to Jinshi Data, investor sentiment has shifted, with Refinitiv data showing anticipated rate cuts increasing to 66 basis points, up from 62 basis points previously.Patrick Munnelly, an analyst at Tickmill Group, noted that this week's disappointing inflation, GDP, and retail sales data reflect a cooling economy, likely prompting further easing measures by the BoE. The market now predicts an 81% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in February, with a 19% chance that rates will remain unchanged at 4.75%.