According to Odaily, Arthur Hayes has expressed his belief that the current market is still in a bullish cycle. He suggests that the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin's bottom would be the previous cycle's peak of $70,000, although he is uncertain if it will drop that low. Hayes notes a positive signal in U.S. dollar liquidity, as the U.S. Treasury's general account is decreasing, which injects liquidity into the market.
Hayes speculates that if the current rise is merely a 'dead cat bounce,' Bitcoin might fall back to around $80,000, offering another buying opportunity. He warns that if the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 indices drop by 20% to 30% from their historical highs, coupled with a major financial institution nearing bankruptcy, a synchronized global market adjustment could occur. In such a scenario, all risk assets, including Bitcoin, might face a sell-off, potentially pushing Bitcoin below $80,000 or even back to $70,000.
Regardless of market fluctuations, Hayes advocates for cautious buying during dips without leveraging and patiently waiting for significant disruptions in fiat financial markets. He anticipates that once the global economy, led by the United States, recovers, Bitcoin could surpass $1,000,000 or even higher.