According to BlockBeats, Greeks.live analyst Adam noted a significant cooling in market activity this week, with fewer announcements from U.S. President Donald Trump contributing to the slowdown. Short-term realized volatility (RV) is currently at 30%, while implied volatility (IV) has dropped sharply, falling below 40%. Medium to long-term RV ranges between 50% and 60%, with IV concentrated around 50%.
The analyst anticipates that the trade and tariff conflicts are far from over, suggesting that market uncertainty and volatility will persist for the foreseeable future. The volume of deliveries accounts for less than 10% of total open interest, and the put-call ratio (PCR) has remained high, indicating a stronger market concern for declines over expectations of rises.
April and June options holdings are stable at around 25%, suggesting a relatively solid market structure with a high likelihood of sideways movement. However, the transition from a bull to a bear market is causing investor sentiment to be notably subdued. In this challenging environment, the probability of a black swan event increases significantly, making deep out-of-the-money puts a potentially wise investment choice.
Anais
