Bitcoin moved firmly back above $92,000 on Friday, extending its rebound from last week’s deep sell-off. While sentiment is improving across the crypto market, analysts warn the broader downtrend remains intact unless BTC can break key resistance levels ahead.The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is up 6.3% this week—its strongest weekly performance since early October—while Bitcoin has now pushed to its highest level since Nov. 20. Ether has also held above $3,000 for three straight days, reinforcing the short-term recovery narrative.Still, despite the renewed momentum, major structural hurdles remain.Bitcoin Must Break $98K–$100K to Reverse the DowntrendEven with Bitcoin trading at $92,000–$92,400, analysts say the market needs a decisive break above $98,000, followed by sustained consolidation above $100,000, to invalidate the month-long decline that began after October’s record $126,000 high.Without a breakout above these levels, the rebound risks forming another lower high, leaving the downtrend intact and raising the possibility of a retest of last week’s $80,000 low.Crypto Sentiment Recovers From Extreme LowsInvestor sentiment is showing early signs of stabilization:Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 20/100 (Extreme Fear)Last week: 10/100The 10-point improvement signals that panic is fading as Bitcoin holds above $92,000, even if markets remain fragile.Thanksgiving-driven low liquidity kept much of the market range-bound, with altcoins mostly flat and BTC guiding overall market direction.Derivatives Markets Show Panic EasingVolatility and options flows indicate that fear is beginning to subside, though traders have not yet shifted decisively bullish.Key derivatives insights:BVIV (30-day implied volatility) continues to fall, erasing November’s fear spike.BTC and ETH puts still trade above calls, but the gap is narrowing.Traders on Deribit are favoring:ETH risk reversalsETH stranglesBTC put spreadsParadigm OTC desks saw large flows into higher-strike ETH call options.Futures open interest:ZEC OI down 5%BTC CME futures OI remains at multi-month lowsETH CME futures OI ~2M ETH (down from 2.66M ETH)Funding rates remain negative for ZEC and SOL, showing continued short-side pressure. Most major tokens maintain marginally positive funding.Altcoin Performance: SKY Leads, ZEC and TIA LagThanksgiving holiday trading saw liquidity drop significantly:Thursday volume: $81BEarlier this week: $113B–$145BTop gainersSKY (formerly MKR): +8.5%, forming a W-bottom patternPUMP and SHIB: +5%ENA: +4.3%, extending its weekly +27% rallyTop losersZEC: –7.1%, now down 26% since Nov. 21TIA: extended decline, driven by layoffs and weakening onchain activityThe Altcoin Season Index sits at 21/100, reflecting continued preference for Bitcoin over speculative altcoins.Market Outlook: Relief Rally, but Structure Still FragileBitcoin reclaiming $92,000 strengthens the case for a short-term recovery, but the market remains technically weak unless BTC can break through major resistance ahead.For the bullish reversal to take hold:Break $98,000Confirm consolidation above $100,000–$102,000Reignite spot trading volumes, still well below bull-cycle peaksUntil then, analysts view the move as a relief rally within a broader downtrend, with the risk of a deeper pullback still present if volume fails to support the recovery.
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