XRP retreated 4.3% on Wednesday, dropping from $2.09 to $2.00 as traders unwound risk following Bitcoin profit-taking — despite institutional flows into XRP ETFs surging well above trend. The move highlights a growing divergence between strong fundamental inflows and short-term technical weakness in the token.Institutional trading activity spiked 54% above the weekly average, signaling strategic selling at resistance, not retail-driven panic.What You Need to KnowXRP fell 4.3%, underperforming the broader crypto market by ~1%.Institutional flows jumped 54% above the 7-day average — consistent with distribution at resistance.ETF inflows remain strong, but XRP continues to fail at the $2.09–$2.10 ceiling.Exchange balances dropped to 2.6B tokens, the lowest in 60 days — tightening long-term supply.The rejection at $2.08 triggered a 205% volume surge (172.8M tokens), flipping the move into a clean failed breakout and driving price back to the $2.00 psychological support.Market BackgroundU.S. spot XRP ETFs added another $170 million in inflows this week — marking yet another week of zero outflows.Market makers report heavy layered sell pressure above $2.10, with persistent offers blocking upside.Exchange-held XRP supply dropped from 3.95B → 2.6B over two months, a structurally bullish signal despite near-term weakness.XRP lagged peers as the CD5 index fell 3.1%, suggesting the move was token-specific, not macro-led.The result is a market caught between strong long-term accumulation and short-term technical rejection.Price Action SummaryHigh → Low: $2.09 → $2.00Daily range: 5.4%Peak volume: 172.8M at 19:00 UTC (205% above daily avg)Resistance rejections: Multiple failures at $2.08–$2.10Late-session stabilization: Higher lows forming at $1.999–$2.005Technical AnalysisSupport$2.00: Psychological level and first defensive line$1.95: Secondary demand zone from prior accumulationResistance$2.09–$2.10: The key barrier; sellers defending aggressivelyA close above $2.10 flips structure short-term bullishVolume Structure54% above weekly trend → institutional flows, not retail breakdownVolume spike during the failed breakout confirms active sell wallsMarket StructurePrice remains inside a multi-month triangular compression, tightening as exchange supply falls.Short-term momentum bearish, with bounce attempts capped under $2.08.What Traders Are Watching$2.00 test #2: A breakdown exposes $1.95 quickly.ETF inflows: Continued inflows offset spot weakness; any slowdown would remove a key support pillar.Breakout confirmation: Requires multiple hourly closes above $2.10 with sustained >100M volume.Compression setup: Structure suggests the next breakout or breakdown will be larger than the last.Shrinking exchange supply: The wildcard — thinner supply can accelerate moves once direction confirms.
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