According to Cointelegraph, crypto traders have not yet exhibited sufficient fear on social media to confirm a market bottom, as suggested by a crypto analyst who believes Bitcoin could still drop to around $75,000. Maksim Balashevich, founder of the crypto market sentiment platform Santiment, expressed in a YouTube video that the current market conditions appear tempting for a further decline. This potential move would represent an approximate 14.77% decrease from Bitcoin’s current price of $88,350, as reported by CoinMarketCap.
Balashevich noted that his reluctance to declare a market bottom stems from observing significant optimism online about a near-term reversal of the downtrend, which he argues is not typical when a true market bottom is forming. Santiment's report on the same day echoed this sentiment, stating that the crowd isn't sufficiently fearful for a bottom to be established. Balashevich highlighted overly optimistic discussions, particularly in retail-dominated channels, about the Bank of Japan's rate cuts and the belief that bears have been caught, leading to expectations of continued upward movement. He emphasized that such statements are not indicative of a market bottom, adding that under different circumstances, he would be more confident in making such a call.
Japan's central bank recently raised interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75%, a move historically linked to approximately 20% corrections in Bitcoin. Despite this, Balashevich suggested that a decline to the predicted price level could offer a favorable setup for traders. Meanwhile, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, speculated that Bitcoin might experience a downturn in 2026, potentially falling to around $65,000. Conversely, other analysts, including Bitwise's chief investment officer Matt Hougan, anticipate 2026 to be a positive year for Bitcoin.
While Balashevich remains skeptical about the market reaching its bottom, crypto market indicators present a conflicting view. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges overall crypto market sentiment, has been in the "Extreme Fear" zone since December 14, with a score of 20 recorded on Sunday. Additionally, the Altcoin Season Index, which assesses the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, indicated a "Bitcoin Season" reading of 17 out of 100 on Saturday. These indicators suggest a risk-off stance among crypto traders, contrasting with Balashevich's outlook.
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