According to BlockBeats, VanEck's Head of Digital Assets, Matthew Sigel, has shared insights on the outlook for digital assets as 2026 begins. Sigel notes that Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline of approximately 80% in the previous cycle, but its actual volatility has since reduced by nearly half. This suggests that the current downturn might be limited to around 40%, with the market having already absorbed about 35% of the decline.
Sigel highlights the historical four-year cycle of Bitcoin, which often peaks during the post-U.S. election window, indicating that the pattern remains valid following the peak in early October 2025. This suggests that 2026 is likely to be a year of consolidation rather than dramatic surges or crashes.
Global liquidity in 2026 presents a mixed picture, with expectations of interest rate cuts providing support. However, U.S. liquidity is slightly tightening due to the clash between AI-driven capital expenditure and a fragile financing market, leading to wider credit spreads. The leverage within the crypto ecosystem has been reset following multiple shakeouts, and while on-chain activity remains weak, there are signs of improvement.
In this context, Sigel recommends establishing a disciplined Bitcoin allocation of 1% to 3% through a dollar-cost averaging strategy. He advises increasing holdings during leverage liquidations and reducing them when market speculation becomes overheated.
Catherine
