Iran Conflict Escalation Unlikely to Trigger U.S. Recession, Says Evans & Partners CIO

Evans & Partners Chief Investment Officer Tim Rocks has expressed optimism despite the escalating conflict in Iran. According to Jin10, Rocks believes that U.S. President Donald Trump needs to resolve the conflict effectively before the midterm elections, suggesting that a resolution could boost market confidence. He further noted that the situation's escalation is unlikely to lead to a U.S. economic recession, as wars tend to stimulate economic growth. The United States is expected to allocate 0.2% of its GDP to replenish its weapons stockpile. Rocks also highlighted that the oil crisis of the 1970s, which led to an economic downturn, was primarily due to policy errors by the Federal Reserve, a scenario he believes will not be repeated. Additionally, he pointed out that direct fuel costs account for only 2% of American household income, indicating that an oil crisis would not hinder the large-scale construction of data centers.