Garrett Jin, an agent for the 'BTC OG Insider Whale,' expressed skepticism about the prospects of a ceasefire, describing it as a 'sugar-coated poison.' According to BlockBeats, Jin argued that the market is operating under the assumption that a brief ceasefire could lead to lasting peace. However, he believes the likelihood of this outcome is less than 10%.
Jin's reasoning is based on the incompatibility between the conditions proposed by Iran and the demands of the United States. He noted that no ceasefire terms have been executed within 24 hours, and historically, conflicts of this magnitude have never been resolved through a two-week pause. Jin suggests that the actual probability of a successful ceasefire is even lower than 10%.