Elon Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI: Polymarket Predicts Outcome

According to Odaily, Polymarket has introduced a new event titled 'Elon Musk Wins at Least $10 Billion Settlement from Altman/OpenAI.' Currently, the probability of a 'Yes' outcome is 14%. The contract rules state that by 11:59 PM on December 31, 2026, Eastern Time, if Elon Musk's lawsuit against Altman (case number: 4:24-cv-04722-YGR, U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California) results in a jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement awarding at least $10 billion in cash or equivalent compensation, the market will settle as 'Yes.' Otherwise, it will settle as 'No.' If the case is dismissed, the initial trial does not meet the compensation threshold, or the compensation is non-monetary, it will be determined as 'No.' Retrials and appeals are not considered in this market. The primary basis for judgment will be official information from the U.S. court system, supplemented by consensus reports from credible media. The lawsuit filed by Elon Musk against OpenAI commenced on April 27, with jury selection underway. Prior to the trial, both parties engaged in public exchanges on the X platform, with OpenAI dismissing the lawsuit as baseless, while Elon Musk criticized Sam Altman, referring to him as 'Scam Altman.' The case centers on the controversy over OpenAI's transition to a for-profit model, with Musk accusing OpenAI of violating its original non-profit commitment. He is seeking up to $134 billion in damages, along with the reversal of the for-profit transition and the removal of relevant executives. The liability determination phase is expected to continue until mid-May.