According to PANews, global investors have been on edge over the past week due to concerns about the ongoing tariff war, with U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable actions adding to market volatility. The latest non-farm payroll data and the University of Michigan consumer survey have further clouded the Federal Reserve's outlook on interest rate cuts. In the coming week, Trump's tariff plans are expected to remain a focal point for market watchers. Additionally, U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's visit to Capitol Hill could significantly influence expectations for future rate cuts.
Key events for the upcoming week include:
- Monday 22:00 (UTC+8): European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a plenary debate on the ECB's 2023 annual report.
- Tuesday 0:00 (UTC+8): U.S. January New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations.
- Tuesday 21:50 (UTC+8): Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks on economic outlook.
- Tuesday 23:00 (UTC+8): Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies at the Senate hearing, presenting the semi-annual monetary policy testimony.
- Wednesday 4:30 (UTC+8): FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President John Williams delivers a speech.
- Wednesday 21:30 (UTC+8): U.S. January CPI and core CPI data release.
- Wednesday 23:00 (UTC+8): Fed Chair Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.
- Thursday 1:00 (UTC+8): 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic discusses economic outlook.
- Thursday 21:30 (UTC+8): U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 8.
- Thursday 21:30 (UTC+8): U.S. January PPI year-over-year and month-over-month data.
- Friday 21:30 (UTC+8): U.S. January retail sales month-over-month data.
- Friday 22:15 (UTC+8): U.S. January industrial production month-over-month data.
Several Wall Street analysts have cautioned that January is traditionally a challenging month for predicting CPI due to seasonal factors, which could increase market volatility upon data release. According to the Cleveland Fed's inflation Nowcasting indicator, January's overall CPI is expected to rise by 2.85% year-over-year, with core CPI increasing by 3.13%, showing only a slight deceleration from the previous month. This is likely to reinforce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain stable interest rates at its March meeting.