Bitcoin futures and options data show neutral sentiment despite BTC dropping below $115,000. Analysts say $115K remains a key support as whales and market makers stay cautious but calm.Key TakeawaysBitcoin futures trade at a neutral 7% premium, suggesting no major sentiment shift despite a $4,700 drop.Options skew briefly spiked to 10% before easing, indicating short-lived fear but no panic.Stablecoin demand in China remains steady, signaling minimal retail fear despite market volatility.$115K remains the key support level as traders cautiously monitor whale activity and macro risks.Bitcoin Drops Below $115K Amid Monthly Derivatives ExpiryBitcoin (BTC) fell 4% between Thursday and Friday, sliding under $115,000 for the first time in two weeks. The move coincided with the monthly derivatives expiry, which liquidated $390 million in futures contracts, or 14% of open interest.Despite the dip, Bitcoin futures and options markets show no signs of widespread panic.Futures Data: Neutral Despite 7% DropUnder normal market conditions, monthly Bitcoin futures trade at a 5–10% annualized premium over spot prices. Currently, the premium sits at 7%, well within the neutral range and only slightly down from Monday’s 8%.What this means: Traders are not aggressively bearish, even after BTC’s $4,700 pullback from its record high of $123,181 on July 14.Notably, the last bullish signal from futures markets came in early February, around the time of US import tariffs and Federal Reserve rate-hike disappointment despite a relatively calm CPI reading.Options Market: Fear Spikes, Then FadesBitcoin’s 25% delta skew — a measure of option traders’ fear — spiked to 10% on Friday, its highest level in nearly four months.This suggested a temporary rush for downside protection (put options). But the fear quickly subsided:Delta skew normalized to 1%, showing a balanced outlook between upside and downside risk.Whales and market makers are not pricing in sustained panic, but neither are they aggressively betting on a bounce.China Stablecoin Data: Minimal FearStablecoin activity in China offers another view into retail sentiment.Typically, strong crypto demand pushes USDT to trade at a premium to the dollar.A 0.5% or greater discount signals fear and exits from crypto.Right now, USDT trades at just a 0.5% discount — mild caution, not capitulation.Despite BTC’s new highs earlier this month, stablecoin flows have remained steady, with no major outflows from the crypto market.Whales, Macro Risks, and What’s Next for BTCThe market continues to watch the entity unloading 80,000 BTC via Galaxy Digital — a massive transaction that shook confidence but has not caused outright panic.Analysts say the bigger risks for BTC now are macro-driven, including:Global trade tensionsA potential US economic slowdownStill, derivatives data suggests no structural weakness. BTC’s $115,000 support remains intact — for now, according to Cointelegraph.
Jixu
Aaron
Jasper
Joy
Hui Xin
Davin
Kikyo