乙醚（以太币 ) 在三周内下跌了 38%，目前 2,000 美元的水平比 2021 年 11 月达到的 4,870 美元的历史高点低了 59%。在 Coinbase 之后出现的破产担忧加剧了当前市场的波动性。美国最大的交易所报告 2022 年第一季度亏损 4.3 亿美元 .
在最近的 10-Q 文件中，Coinbase 披露了以下内容：
“如果发生破产，我们代表客户持有的加密资产可能会进入破产程序。”
监管的不确定性也是以太币大幅回调的部分原因。 5 月 11 日，韩国报纸 Kukmin 报道了即将出台的政府“数字资产基本法案 (DABA)”法案的泄露草案。的管理韩国有望出台监管框架 首次代币发行 (ICO)，以及对每年超过 2,100 美元的加密收益征收 20% 的税。
影响市场的另一个因素是投资者对稳定币的信心。 5 月 11 日，USD Tether (泰达币 )，市值最大的稳定币，跌破了它的挂钩 ，并且在主要交易所的交易价格低于 0.99 美元。不过，Tether 和 Bitfinex 首席技术官 Paulo Ardoino 强调，USDT 在多次黑天鹅事件中保持稳定，“继续正常处理赎回”。
要了解大型交易者的仓位，应该查看以太坊的期货和期权市场数据。每当套利柜台和做市商为上行或下行保护收取过高费用时，25% 的 delta 偏斜就是一个明显的信号。
如果这些交易员担心以太币价格暴跌，则偏斜指标将超过 10%。另一方面，普遍的兴奋反映了 10% 的负偏差。这就是为什么该指标被称为专业交易者的恐惧和贪婪指标的原因。
自 4 月 23 日以来，偏斜指标一直高于 10%，并在 5 月 12 日飙升至 29% 的峰值。除了表明期权交易员极度恐惧外，该指标还达到了有史以来的最高水平。
过去三周表现出明显的情绪恶化，目前 27% 的 delta 偏差表明价格意外上下波动的明显不平衡风险。
有关的：Untethered - 这是您需要了解的有关 TerraUSD、Tether 和其他稳定币的所有信息
顶级交易商的多空净比率不包括可能影响特定衍生工具的外部因素。通过分析这些顶级客户在现货、永续合约和期货合约上的头寸，可以更好地了解专业交易员是倾向于看涨还是看跌。
不同交易所之间偶尔会出现方法上的差异，因此观众应该关注变化而不是绝对数字。
尽管以太币自 3 月 11 日以来暴跌 29% 至 1,700 美元的低点，但专业交易员根据多空指标减少了看涨押注。 OKX 的顶级交易员比率从 1.25 下降到目前的 0.85 水平。
Binance 数据还显示，这些交易员将他们的多头头寸从 1.03 减少到 0.98，而在火币则保持在 1.00 不变。这表明在以太币价格大幅调整的情况下，鲸鱼和做市商几乎没有任何购买活动。
根本没有办法美化 Ether 当前的衍生品数据，因为这两个指标都反映出专业投资者缺乏信心。期权交易员为下行保护收取过高的费用表明，根据风险指标，以太币可能会跌破 1,700 美元。
此处表达的观点和意见仅代表作者并不一定反映 Cointelegraph 的观点。每一项投资和交易都涉及风险。在做出决定时，您应该进行自己的研究。
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