Uniswap Founder Highlights Discrepancies in Greenland Acquisition Predictions

Uniswap founder Hayden Adams recently commented on the X platform about the significant pricing differences in prediction markets regarding the potential U.S. acquisition of Greenland. According to Odaily, Kalshi has priced the likelihood at approximately 42%, while Polymarket's pricing ranges from 15% to 23%. Adams noted that this discrepancy is not primarily due to differences in user demographics but rather the distinct nature of the betting propositions themselves. Adams explained that if the difference were solely due to user structure, a trader with access to both platforms could quickly arbitrage the price gap. However, the reality is more complex. Polymarket's prediction concerns the probability of the acquisition occurring by 2026, currently estimated at around 23%, whereas Kalshi's prediction pertains to the likelihood of it happening during U.S. President Donald Trump's entire term, currently estimated at 45%. The differences in event definitions, settlement conditions, oracle design, and risk pricing logic contribute to the varied pricing between the two platforms.