Nasdaq Contracts Driven by Leverage and Liquidation Mechanisms

According to Odaily, Markos Mom recently shared insights on the X platform regarding the nature of 24/7 Nasdaq contracts. He emphasized that these contracts do not represent a true index, as their prices are primarily influenced by positions, leverage, funding rates, and liquidation mechanisms rather than new information from underlying companies, options, or geopolitical events. When the actual market is closed, there is no ETF arbitrage, options market, or cash stock flow. Instead, it functions as a price, a liquidation engine, and traders' predictions for the opening. Mom pointed out that this scenario is no longer about price discovery but rather a stress test. This explains the sudden 4% drops during calm weekends, followed by almost immediate recoveries to previous ranges. Such abrupt fluctuations are not mean reversion but occur due to an open countdown until the reference market reopens, forcing the market to re-anchor. This distinction clarifies why the product sometimes experiences dramatic misalignments. Low volatility encourages leverage, which accumulates stop-loss orders, boosting liquidations and causing significant temporary fluctuations. The weekend volatility range of this product is not constrained by logic or fair value but by balance sheet and margin limitations. For most, it resembles a coin-flip gamble with a future convergence event and an extremely uncertain path.