South African Rand's Potential for Appreciation Amid Economic Reforms

The South African Rand is currently considered undervalued, according to a survey of investors and economists. According to Jin10, the currency has room for further appreciation as government reform plans aim to boost economic growth. The survey, which included 14 respondents, revealed an average fair value expectation for the Rand against the U.S. dollar at 15.64. Half of the respondents believe the currency is undervalued, three see it as near fair value, and four consider it overvalued. The estimated fair value range is between 12.23 and 18. In contrast, the South African Reserve Bank holds a less optimistic view, predicting the Rand will depreciate to 16.73 by the second quarter of 2026, with an exchange rate forecast between 16.54 and 17.10 by the end of 2028. Frank Blackmore, an economist at KPMG in Johannesburg, anticipates the Rand will appreciate to 15.50 by the end of the year. He believes fiscal policy will be the primary driver of the currency's performance this year, with the national budget announcement on February 25 serving as a crucial test of the government's reform ambitions.