BNP Paribas: Bank of Japan Unlikely to Raise Interest Rates in October Amid Political Transition

Key Takeaways:BNP Paribas economists say the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is unlikely to raise rates at its October 29–30 policy meeting.The election of new Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi could delay policy coordination with the central bank.Economists note that while economic and inflation data support a hike, political timing makes an October move improbable.According to Jinshi Data, BNP Paribas economists believe the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hold off on raising interest rates at its upcoming October 29–30 meeting, despite improving inflation dynamics and stronger economic indicators.The delay is largely attributed to Japan’s political transition, following the election of Sanae Takaichi as the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Takaichi is expected to prioritize close coordination with the central bank, a process that may take additional time to establish.While the macroeconomic and inflation backdrop would typically justify a rate hike this month, BNP Paribas analysts argue that policy continuity and political prudence are likely to push the BOJ’s next rate move to early 2026 or later.