How Pro-Crypto Trump's Conviction Affects The Presidential Race

Donald Trump on Thursday became the first former US president ever convicted of a crime after a New York jury found him guilty on all charges in his hush money case, months before an election that could see him yet return to the White House.

The jury found him guilty on each of the 34 counts of falsifying business records to hide a payment meant to silence porn star Stormy Daniels.

Although he could theoretically be sentenced to four years behind bars for each count, he is more likely to receive probation.

The 77-year-old Republican, who was released without bail, is now a felon—a historic and startling first in a country where presidents are frequently described as the most powerful man in the world.

Trump was convicted of falsifying business records to reimburse his lawyer, Michael Cohen, for a $130,000 payment to Daniels on the eve of the 2016 election, when her claim to have had sex with him could have proved fatal to his campaign against Hillary Clinton.

Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance and Its Political Significance
As the crypto industry has grown increasingly important to the political landscape, Donald Trump, who back in 2019 tweeted his disdain for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, has openly declared he will make America the leader in crypto while supporting the right to self-custody.

This marks a significant shift from his earlier stance and aligns with the broader acceptance and integration of digital currencies in the global economy.

Trump's pro-crypto approach has become a cornerstone of his campaign, appealing to a burgeoning demographic of crypto enthusiasts and investors who see digital currency as the future of finance.

Biden’s Strategic Shift on Crypto
Joe Biden seemingly recognizes the looming threat of Trump's pro-crypto approach and is planning to avoid clashing head-on with his previous anti-crypto stance. Is it too little too late?

After Trump made cryptocurrencies a focal point of his campaign, Biden has made a surprising turn in tone toward the crypto industry, with his team reaching out to the community on policy formulation.

President Biden’s re-election campaign team has started approaching key crypto industry participants in the last two weeks, seeking insights and advice on “crypto community and policy moving forward,” according to The Block.
Sources with direct knowledge on the matter have reported that the Biden team has been conducting key discussions with multiple crypto experts, including some previously dismissed by the incumbent president.

The administration has begun to recognize the impact that crypto-related issues could have on a potentially narrow presidential race.

One source from Trump’s camp noted, “They have very smart and capable people advising on that front, and you’ve seen some of the results of that and will see more in the coming months.”

Despite optimism among many in the sector regarding this pro-crypto shift, some participants involved in discussions with the Biden campaign have expressed skepticism, arguing that the team’s recent crypto-positive actions are “too little, too late.”

Earlier, Biden had received heavy criticism from the crypto community due to his administration’s stance against legislation that would allow highly regulated financial firms to act as custodians for crypto assets.

Crypto Gamblers Still Favor Trump's Chances Despite Conviction
Despite the conviction, Trump's odds of winning have held stable among crypto gamblers and mainstream political polls.

Over $142 million is riding on “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” the top political wager on crypto betting site Polymarket—which is notably not officially available to U.S. residents. For more than a week, Trump's odds of winning have remained at about 56%, mirroring many mainstream political polls.

After the verdict was announced, live odds fluctuated between 53% and 55%, where they stand as of this writing.

ShapeShift and Venice AI founder Erik Voorhees expressed little surprise at this stability, suggesting that the trial focused “utmost condemnation” on a relatively insignificant crime.

While Trump's conviction may seem like the beginning of the end for his presidential run, his odds have not diminished significantly among election gamblers and mainstream political polls.

It remains to be seen if Trump's run will ultimately be doomed by his conviction, but for now, his pro-crypto stance continues to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate.

Donald Trump's conviction is unprecedented and historic, yet it has not significantly altered his standing among key demographics and political gamblers.

His pro-crypto stance is a major factor in his campaign, potentially reshaping the political landscape and forcing his rival Joe Biden to adapt.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the implications of Trump's conviction and his embrace of cryptocurrency will be critical to watch, determining not just the direction of his campaign, but also the broader acceptance and regulation of digital currencies in the United States.