Bubblemaps Flags 6 Polymarket Wallets That Profited $1.2M Betting on Feb. 28 U.S. Strike on Iran

CoinDesk reported that on-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six wallets that collectively made about $1.2 million by betting on Polymarket that a U.S. strike on Iran would occur by Feb. 28—the same day the strikes happened. Bubblemaps said most of the wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack, focused on the specific Feb. 28 contract rather than broader time windows, and bought “Yes” shares hours before the operation began. The largest wallet allegedly turned roughly $61,000 into more than $493,000 in profit, while another made about $120,000 from a $30,000 position. The activity has fueled scrutiny over optics around prediction markets. Polymarket later added a note to its Middle East markets saying prediction markets aim to aggregate crowd information into accurate, unbiased forecasts and, after speaking with people affected by the attacks, argued such markets can provide answers that TV news and X may not.