Next Week’s Macro Outlook: US-Iran Talks, Fed Signals and Oil Prices to Drive Markets

Key Takeaways US-Iran negotiations remain the biggest market risk next week.Oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz situation will continue to influence risk sentiment.Markets are increasingly pricing in Fed rate cuts later this year.Investors will closely watch economic data, including retail sales, jobless claims and PMI readings.Potential Fed leadership changes could also affect expectations for monetary policy. Middle East Tensions Remain the Main Market Driver Global markets rebounded over the past week as investors priced in a lower probability of a major escalation in the Middle East. Temporary optimism emerged after Iran signaled that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open, which pushed oil prices lower and boosted risk assets including equities and crypto. However, that optimism faded after Iran later indicated that the strait remains under military control and the US maintained its blockade on Iranian shipping. Markets have shifted from pricing in immediate escalation toward pricing in a potential de-escalation path, but sentiment remains fragile. The key question next week is whether negotiations between the US and Iran continue to progress. Donald Trump indicated that discussions may continue over the weekend and warned that if no agreement is reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could collapse and conflict could resume. Iran remains cautious, particularly around issues related to uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. Any signs of renewed conflict could quickly push oil prices higher again and pressure equities, crypto and other risk assets. Fed Expectations Are Becoming More Important Falling oil prices over the past few sessions have reduced some inflation concerns, which has helped lift expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Markets are currently pricing around a 60% probability of at least one Fed rate cut in 2026. Attention will also turn to potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership. Next week, Kevin Warsh is expected to testify before the Senate. Investors will be watching closely for any dovish comments on: InflationInterest ratesEconomic growthFinancial conditions A more dovish tone could support risk assets such as Bitcoin, equities and gold. Key Economic Events Next Week Tuesday US March retail sales data Thursday US weekly initial jobless claimsPreliminary April S&P Global Manufacturing PMIPreliminary April S&P Global Services PMI Friday Final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexFinal April one-year inflation expectations These reports will help investors assess whether the US economy remains resilient or whether higher oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are starting to weigh on growth. What Markets Will Watch Most Closely In the near term, markets are likely to remain driven by three main themes: US-Iran negotiations and the risk of renewed conflictOil price direction and the status of the Strait of HormuzFederal Reserve policy expectations and any changes in leadership tone For crypto markets, continued stabilization in oil prices and a more dovish Fed outlook would likely remain supportive for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.