Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Eyes $117K CME Gap Fill as CPI, PPI Data Set the Macro Tone

Key TakeawaysBTC hit $122,312 before retracing, with traders eyeing a $117K–$119K CME futures gap as a potential short-term pullback target.Leverage-to-spot ratio at multi-year lows signals rally is being driven by spot demand, not excessive leverage.U.S. CPI and PPI data this week will shape Fed rate cut odds for September, currently near 90%.Whales show no major signs of profit-taking, while Coinbase Premium Index turning negative raises short-term caution.BTC Starts the Week Near All-Time HighsBitcoin opened the new week with a surge to $122,312, its highest since the current bull leg began, before easing back to around $121,250. The move liquidated over $100 million in shorts and pushed BTC closer to all-time highs, though analysts warn of potential consolidation.Traders are closely watching a weekend CME gap between $117,000 and $119,000 — a range where Bitcoin futures stopped trading Friday and reopened higher Monday. Historically, such gaps are often “filled” as spot prices revisit the range within days. A full gap fill would align with the key $117,200 support/resistance flip zone, described by analyst Rekt Capital as decisive for BTC’s broader trend.Spot Demand Dominates as Leverage Stays LowDespite the sharp move, futures-to-spot ratios are near their lowest since the 2022 bear market bottom, according to trader BitBull. This suggests the rally is spot demand–driven, reducing the risk of a leverage wipeout.“That’s a rare signal,” BitBull said, adding that spot buying tends to hold through volatility, potentially supporting further upside once macro catalysts play out.Macro Focus: CPI and PPI in SpotlightThis week brings U.S. CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Friday) — data releases likely to influence the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision. Economists expect core CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month in July, up from 0.2% in June, as tariffs push prices higher.Markets currently price a 90% probability of a September rate cut, up from 57% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch data. A cooler-than-expected CPI print could lock in those expectations and boost risk assets, while a hotter print might trigger short-term selling in BTC.On-Chain Signals: Whales Stay PutCryptoQuant data shows that large $10M+ USDT transfers — often a signal of profit-taking — are absent. In July, similar spikes preceded BTC pullbacks of 3.8%–4.5%, but current readings suggest whales are not cashing out into stablecoins.If Bitcoin holds above $120K, bulls may push for new highs before month-end. A dip toward $117K–$119K to fill the CME gap could reset market structure before another leg up, especially if macro data supports risk appetite, according to Coinetelgraph.