China's Bitcoin Legalization Prospects Remain Low, Polymarket Traders Say

Polymarket traders have assessed the likelihood of China legalizing onshore Bitcoin purchases by the end of 2026 at a mere 5%. According to NS3.AI, Beijing's regulatory framework established in February 2026 has reinforced strict prohibitions on cryptocurrency activities, including onshore trading, banking facilitation, and stablecoin issuance. While Hong Kong has been experimenting with regulatory measures such as Bitcoin ETFs and stablecoin licensing, mainland China continues to uphold a stringent ban on renminbi-to-Bitcoin conversions and the legalization of crypto mining. This firm stance reflects China's cautious approach to cryptocurrency regulation, despite regional variations in policy.