Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin MACD Bull Signal Nears as BTC Tests $70K Amid War, Inflation Risks

Key Takeaways Bitcoin approaches a weekly MACD bullish cross, last followed by a $25K rally.BTC trades near $70,000, triggering over $250M in liquidations.Donald Trump Iran deadline adds geopolitical volatility.CPI and PCE inflation data could shape Fed policy and crypto direction.Bear flag structure remains, with analysts warning new lows still possible. Bitcoin Flirts With First Major Bull Signal Since 2025 Bitcoin is nearing a key technical milestone, with the weekly MACD indicator on track to flip bullish for the first time in nearly a year. A similar signal in May 2025 preceded a $25,000 rally over two months, raising expectations of a potential trend reversal if confirmed. BTC has also reclaimed the 200-week EMA, a historically important long-term support level. However, confirmation is still pending, and macro conditions remain a dominant influence. Liquidations Surge as Bitcoin Tests $70K Bitcoin briefly pushed above $70,000, triggering over $250 million in liquidations, largely from short positions. Derivatives data shows increasing open interest and rising net taker volume, indicating renewed speculative participation. Analysts describe positioning as increasingly aggressive, which can amplify short-term volatility. Despite this, some traders remain cautious, noting that weekend rallies often lack follow-through. Macro Risks: Iran Deadline and Inflation Data in Focus Geopolitical tensions remain a key driver of market sentiment. Donald Trump has set a deadline for Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, with markets bracing for potential escalation or a last-minute deal. At the same time, key U.S. inflation data—including CPI and PCE—will be released this week. Rising oil prices above $115 per barrel are expected to push inflation higher, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Markets currently expect the Fed to hold rates steady in the near term. Bear Flag Structure Still Threatens Downside Despite bullish technical signals, Bitcoin remains within a bear flag pattern, which historically signals continuation of a downtrend. Previous similar structures in 2026 resulted in sharp declines, and analysts warn that a breakdown could send BTC toward lower support levels, including potential retests below $60,000 or even into the mid-$40,000 range. Some traders suggest that new lows remain “likely” unless macro conditions improve or a strong catalyst emerges. Outlook: Bull Signal vs Macro Reality Bitcoin faces a critical inflection point: Bullish case: MACD crossover confirms, ETF inflows continue, war de-escalatesBearish case: Inflation rises, war escalates, bear flag breaks down The convergence of technical signals and macro risks suggests elevated volatility ahead, with Bitcoin’s next major move likely determined by both confirmation of the MACD signal and external economic developments.