CITIC Securities: El Niño May Boost Global Coal Prices in Q2

CITIC Securities released a report on April 24, stating that the probability of El Niño occurring is increasing, which could lead to more high-temperature days in the summer. According to Jin10, this development is expected to boost domestic demand for thermal coal in China and potentially increase demand for Indian thermal coal, positively impacting global coal price expectations. The report expresses optimism about coal price performance in the second quarter, noting that even if Middle Eastern conflicts ease, energy supply recovery will take time. Combined with climate factors, domestic and international coal prices may resonate in the latter part of Q2, with the effects of rising coal and chemical prices expected to be fully realized during this period. CITIC Securities believes that new catalysts for coal price expectations are gradually forming, and the sector may enter a new round of rebound.