Key Takeaways:The Bitcoin CME futures spread has dropped to $490, the lowest since Nov. 5, fully reversing the Trump-related rally that had peaked at $1,705 in December.Bitcoin and Nasdaq have fallen 20% and 8%, respectively, since early February, with macroeconomic factors taking precedence over pro-crypto political narratives.The market reacted negatively to Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which did not include fresh BTC purchases.Bitcoin futures remain in contango, signaling longer-term optimism despite near-term pressures.Bitcoin's ‘Trump Bump’ Fully Reversed as Macro Forces DominateThe initial bullish sentiment following Donald Trump’s election victory has faded as Bitcoin’s CME futures spread contracts to $490, the lowest level since November 2024. The spread had previously peaked at $1,705 on Dec. 17, driven by optimism that a pro-crypto administration would fuel BTC’s institutional adoption.However, the market no longer sees Trump's presidency as an automatic tailwind for crypto, instead focusing on broader macroeconomic risks, including:Geopolitical tensions and new trade tariffs impacting global risk assets.Concerns over inflation and economic growth, with CPI data dictating future Fed rate decisions.Nasdaq’s 8% decline, highlighting the broader risk-off sentiment in tech and speculative assets.“The market has repriced the Trump catalyst, focusing instead on inflation and trade risks,” said Thomas Erdösi, Head of Product at CF Benchmarks.Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fails to Spark New Bull RunAnother factor behind BTC’s weakness is the lack of new purchases in Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The announcement confirmed that the U.S. will not sell its existing confiscated BTC, but did not include fresh Bitcoin acquisitions, disappointing investors who had anticipated government-led demand."Many expected the Reserve to buy new Bitcoin, but instead, they stated they would not sell any of their existing or confiscated Bitcoin," said Ian Balina, CEO of Token Metrics.The market reaction was immediate, with Bitcoin’s price falling sharply post-announcement.Bitcoin Futures Still in Contango: What It MeansDespite the narrowing spread in near-term BTC futures, the entire CME futures curve remains in contango, meaning that longer-dated BTC contracts still trade at a premium.This suggests:No structural bearish shift in market expectations—contango is typical in bullish phases.Recent price weakness is likely due to unlevered spot longs being squeezed, rather than institutional traders aggressively shorting BTC.Perpetual funding rates remain positive, reinforcing that a broad sell-off is not in play.While Bitcoin's immediate bullish catalyst from Trump’s election has faded, the market remains structurally positioned for long-term upside. The focus now shifts to macroeconomic trends, Federal Reserve policy, and potential new regulatory developments, according to CoinDesk.
Joy
Catherine
Kikyo
Aaron
Hui Xin
Alex
Snake
YouQuan