Bitcoin News: Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle May Still Be Alive, Says Glassnode

Despite some market predictions that Bitcoin’s historic four-year halving cycle is fading due to rising institutional interest, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s current price action still “echoes prior patterns” and appears to be tracking its typical cycle.Key Insights from GlassnodeBitcoin’s price movements continue to reflect its traditional four-year halving cycle.Profit-taking among long-term holders (holding BTC for over 155 days) is comparable to previous euphoric phases, indicating the market may be in a late cycle stage.Capital inflows into Bitcoin are showing signs of fatigue, with spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing outflows of approximately $975 million over the past four trading days.Since reaching a recent high of $124,128 on August 14, Bitcoin has corrected by about 8.3%, trading near $113,940 at publication.The decline in demand has pushed traders toward riskier bets, with open interest in major altcoins briefly hitting a record $60 billion before a $2.5 billion correction.Glassnode suggests that if Bitcoin continues to follow its historical cycle, the market peak could arrive as early as October 2025, consistent with previous cycles where highs occurred 2-3 months after the current stage measured from the cycle low.Supporting Analyst ViewsCrypto analyst Rekt Capital also forecasts a potential peak in October 2025, approximately 550 days after the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, aligning with the 2020 cycle pattern.Contrasting Opinions: Is the 4-Year Cycle Over?Not all experts agree that the four-year cycle remains intact:Jason Williams, author and investor, highlights that the top 100 treasury companies hold nearly 1 million Bitcoin, suggesting institutional accumulation could alter traditional cycle dynamics.Data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET shows publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies hold about $112.17 billion worth of BTC.Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, argues the Bitcoin cycle is “dead” and predicts an “up year” in 2026 instead.Hougan believes the halving cycle’s influence is diminishing, with macro factors like the interest rate cycle playing a more significant role in crypto’s future price action.SummaryWhile some industry voices claim the four-year Bitcoin cycle is obsolete due to growing institutional demand and changing market dynamics, Glassnode’s on-chain data and several analysts suggest Bitcoin’s price action still aligns with its historic halving cycle. The next few months, especially leading into October 2025, will be critical in confirming whether Bitcoin’s traditional cycle remains relevant, according to Cointelegraph.