Market Structure Improves Amid Japanese Central Bank Rate Hike Expectations

According to ChainCatcher, Wintermute's market report indicates that expectations of a rate hike by the Japanese central bank have completely erased last week's stability, leading to widespread deleveraging. The market structure has been reset, with leverage significantly reduced, liquidity returning to neutral, and spot market participation notably increasing. Currently, everything is trading according to macroeconomic logic, but major currency pairs appear less fragile. From a market structure perspective, conditions are actually improving. The basis has fallen to a cyclical low, with Bitcoin's 90-day annualized basis close to 4% to 5% and Ethereum near 3% to 4%, reflecting a continued increase in leveraged long positions. The total open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased from approximately $230 billion at the beginning of October to about $135 billion now, clearing a substantial amount of excess leverage and reducing the likelihood of further mechanical liquidations. The proportion of spot trading volume has increased, and considering the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, the depth of spot supply is better than expected. Lower leverage, negative financing, and healthier spot participation are typically needed before the market restructures again after macroeconomic stabilization.