As the pioneer of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s price fluctuations and market cycles have always been the focus of investors. This article will explore the correlation between the Bitcoin halving event and its price cycle through the perspective of historical data, and predict future market trends. It is worth noting that the analysis and predictions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Historical Review: Bitcoin Halving and Price Cycle
Bitcoin’s halving event refers to the process of halving mining rewards. This is a default mechanism in the Bitcoin protocol to control the issuance and inflation rate of Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced three halving events, each of which has had a significant impact on market prices.
2012 Halving: The first halving occurred in November 2012, when the price of Bitcoin was only $12. Within 362 days after the halving, the price surged to $1,163, showing stunning growth.
2016 Halving: The second halving took place in July 2016, and the price on that day was $663. Over the next 525 days, the price climbed to $19,666, once again proving the huge impact of the halving event on the market.
2020 Halving: The most recent halving was held in May 2020, and the price on that day was $8,740. 548 days later, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69,000.
Through these data, we can observe a trend: the time to reach the price peak after the halving event is gradually lengthening, from 362 days to 548 days. This provides a certain reference for us to predict future market trends.
2024 Halving Forecast and Bull Market Cycle Forecast
According to historical rules, we predict that after the Bitcoin halving in 2024, the market will reach a new price high around the end of 2025. However, unlike the previous halvings, the market before the 2024 halving has shown new changes, mainly reflected in the following points:
Price breakthrough Accelerating: Ahead of the 2024 halving, Bitcoin price has broken through the previous bull market highs faster than ever before.
Approval of Spot Bitcoin ETF: The approval of the US SEC and the global acceptance of spot Bitcoin ETF products have brought epic good news to the market. May extend the bull market cycle.
Market value growth forecast: Taking into account the expansion of the crypto asset market and the advancement of the compliance process, it is expected that the total market value of the crypto market will grow during the peak of the bull market in 2025 It will be between 3.2 times and 4 times, and the total market value is expected to reach 8.38 trillion to 10.48 trillion US dollars.
Bitcoin market capitalization and price range: Based on the stability of Bitcoin’s market capitalization ratio in the past bull market, it is predicted that Bitcoin’s market capitalization range will be 3.55 trillion to 44,800 billion, with a corresponding price range of US$178,000 to US$222,400.
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