Messari: Optimistic about the Bitcoin Ecosystem’s Alternative Season, What Are the Future Catalysts?

Author: MONK, Messari researcher; Translation: Jinse Finance xiaozou

This article summarizes the key points of Messari's latest research report.

I believe that the Bitcoin Alts ecosystem (runes and ordinals) is one of the most asymmetric crypto bets you can make right now.

Let's take a look at the ecosystem and its catalysts.

After the hot issuance, runes transactions have generally been on a downward trend, but stabilized in the last quarter.

Despite this, the ecosystem continues to see an influx of new addresses, and the runes interactive wallet has achieved steady growth for the first time.

Mindshare also remains highly correlated, according to Kaito AI, and runes is competing with some of the top crypto fields such as DeFi.

What people often overlook is that the Bitcoin meme coin is worth up to nine figures and is the most valuable of the cryptocurrencies. The market cap has basically bottomed out and seems to be recovering.

The same is true for Ordinals. Bitcoin Puppets has been a top 10 collectible most of the time, and the floor price has also had a nice upward trend in recent times.

We believe these are evidence of continued adoption and continued interest. This Bitcoin L1 has a top 15 meme coin (DOG) and a top 15 NFT series (Bitcoin Puppets and NodeMonkes). No other chain can claim this except Solana and Ethereum mainnet.

I gave a full list of upcoming catalysts in the report. Two points to emphasize: Magic Eden's ME token will start TGE next week. ME currently has a FDV of over $4 billion in pre-market trading. This could mean a $400M+ airdrop for runes and ordinarys users.

It is also worth noting that the top three runes have been nominated for listing on Binance Futures and are currently in the review phase. This will be a significant unlock as Bitcoin’s user experience makes it difficult to achieve organic price discovery at present.

Magic Eden and OKX have done a great job improving the user experience, liquidity, and accessibility of the ecosystem. ME’s new funds will also be used to provide ongoing incentives.

As the trading environment for Solana and Ethereum becomes increasingly crowded, we believe the Bitcoin ecosystem can provide an outlet to the early narrative, less than a year after the launch of the runes token standard.

Bitcoin’s native addressable market is one of the largest in crypto. While interest in Bitcoin Alts has declined to date, we are seeing growing communities, continued activity, and stable valuations. This forgotten ecosystem could be revitalized with the right catalyst.