Overall MarketData source: TradingViewOur previous report nailed the exact bottom. We explicitly warned that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market were experiencing extreme liquidation pressure from restrictive global liquidity, with Bitcoin trading in deeply oversold territory (14-day RSI below 30). We told subscribers a violent rebound was imminent, and that’s precisely what unfolded. Within hours of publication, Bitcoin wicked down to $81,000 during early European trading hours, marking the final capitulation low before reversing sharply higher. The catalyst was clear: dovish signals from Federal Reserve governors John Williams and Mary Daly reignited risk appetite and propelled Bitcoin back above $91,000 in a matter of days.Liquidity remains the dominant force moving all risk assets, and the shift we’ve been anticipating is now fully underway. Just a week ago, the market was pricing only a ~40% chance of a December rate cut, triggering a brutal sell-off across equities, commodities, and crypto alike. The dovish pivot from Williams and Daly flipped that narrative overnight: December cut odds surged past 84%, and every major risk asset staged an immediate and powerful relief rally.Several confirmed liquidity tailwinds are now locked in for the coming months. Starting December 1, the Federal Reserve officially ends quantitative tightening by fully reinvesting all maturing Treasury securities; the $25 billion monthly runoff that has drained markets for over three years is over. On November 25, U.S. regulators finalized changes to the enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio, unlocking approximately $13 billion in Tier-1 capital at global systemically important bank (GSIB) holding companies and a massive $219 billion at their depository subsidiaries. Banks can adopt the new rules as early as January 1, 2026, with full implementation by April 1. This change directly expands lending and prime-brokerage capacity for risk assets.The December 9–10 FOMC meeting is widely expected to deliver another 25 basis point cut. Even if Chair Powell strikes a hawkish tone in the press conference, the cut itself keeps the liquidity spigot open and reinforces the Fed put, a net bullish for Bitcoin and crypto. The only notable counter-risk comes from the Bank of Japan’s December 18–19 meeting, where markets assign roughly a 53% probability of a 25 basis point hike amid 3%+ inflation and persistent yen weakness. A BoJ hike could create temporary global headwinds via yen strength, but it pales in comparison to the Fed’s easing cycle and is unlikely to derail the broader uptrend.The market has already priced the December cut, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing near 4.00%. With U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving and a quiet data calendar ahead, the next meaningful catalyst doesn’t arrive until Monday, December 1.From a Bitcoin technical perspective, we are approaching a decisive resistance zone. The $93,000 level represents the immediate hurdle, followed by thicker supply at $95,000 and $98,000. A clean break above $100,000 would open the path to fresh all-time highs. On-chain metrics and order-book depth suggest the market will consolidate within a wide $80,000–$100,000 range for the next one to two months as it digests the recent drawdown and builds energy for the next leg higher. Our conviction remains strongly bullish: new all-time highs into Q1 2026 are our base case, driven by relentless institutional inflows, spot ETF demand, and the most favorable macro liquidity backdrop in years.On the altcoin side, capital is rotating aggressively into proven narratives. The Solana ecosystem continues to lead, with on-chain activity surging: daily transactions, TVL, and DEX volume are all trending decisively higher, while Solana ETFs attract consistent inflows. Meanwhile, the synthetic stablecoin yield theme remains one of the strongest pockets of demand, as our desk saw strong flows on ENA in the last several days.Bitcoin ETF TrackerThe above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.Last week delivered the heaviest ETF outflows on record, but the capitulation low was struck around $81,000 on Friday. That was the moment the smart money stepped in hard. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $238 million net inflow that same day as the price ripped higher, proof that institutional and retail investors alike recognized the generational buying opportunity and loaded up aggressively.This holiday-shortened week showed net-zero ETF flows, which is exactly what we expect in thin, post-Thanksgiving trading. Traditional finance players are still sitting on their hands, waiting for the all-clear on liquidity, and that caution is about to be rewarded. While the broader risk complex posted only modest gains (despite Google’s monster rally to fresh all-time highs), the lack of follow-through selling is telling. The rebound didn’t fade because of weakness; it paused because volume evaporated over the holiday.Macro at a glanceWeekly Macro Highlights (November 20–26, 2025)Thursday, November 20 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 declined to 220,000. Continuing claims (week ending November 8) rose to a seasonally adjusted 1.974 million. The low level of initial claims continues to signal a resilient labor market; however, the uptick in continuing claims and recent high-profile corporate layoff announcements suggest that the more lagging indicators may not yet fully reflect emerging softness. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August.Friday, November 21 Japan’s national core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose 3.0% y/y in October, in line with consensus. The headline CPI increased 0.5% m/m, accelerating from 0.2% in September. Sustained above-target inflation continues to increase the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December, which could tighten global liquidity conditions and weigh on liquidity-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin. U.K. retail sales volumes grew just 0.2% y/y in October, well below the expected 1.5%. Core retail sales (excluding auto fuel) rose only 1.2% y/y against a forecast of 2.5%, underscoring weakening consumer momentum. New York Fed President John Williams described current policy as “modestly restrictive” and indicated openness to a near-term rate cut, citing rising employment risks alongside cooling inflation. Markets responded strongly, lifting the implied probability of a December Fed rate cut from approximately 40% to over 70%.Tuesday, November 25U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% m/m in September, in line with expectations. Advance U.S. retail sales for October increased only 0.2% m/m, missing the consensus forecast of 0.4%. Core retail sales (excluding autos) rose 0.3% m/m, decelerating from 0.6% in August and highlighting a clear slowdown in consumer spending. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 in November, significantly below the expected 93.5 and October’s 95.5. The sharp decline signals reduced willingness to spend and supports the view that demand-driven inflationary pressures are likely to ease further. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed heightened concern about labor-market deterioration and voiced support for a December rate cut. Following her remarks, market-implied odds of a December easing rose above 80%.Wednesday, November 26U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 fell further to 216,000, the lowest level since mid-April. The Chicago PMI plunged to 36.3 in November from 43.8 in October, remaining deeply in contraction territory and indicating continued weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector.Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations and execution services. Join our Telegram Channel @BinanceOTCTrading (https://t.me/+0mkJQnbQiOdlZjk0) to stay up to date with the markets!You can also reach out to us on Telegram (@Binance_OTC_Desk) to connect directly with our experienced traders for your OTC trading needs. We look forward to assisting you and providing exceptional service for all your OTC transactions.
Anais
Weatherly