STOCKS | CMB International Securities Lowers Pop Mart Target Price by 66.6%

CMB International Securities has significantly reduced its target price for Pop Mart (09992.HK) by 66.6%, from HKD 380 to HKD 127, and downgraded its rating from 'Overweight' to 'Underweight.' According to Jin10, the firm has also lowered its overseas revenue forecasts for Pop Mart by 52% for 2026 and 60% for 2027, anticipating that single-store sales in the U.S. and Thailand will be 20% and 30% lower than previously expected, respectively. Due to the decline in overseas sales proportion, the gross margin forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted down by 6 and 10 percentage points, respectively. Overall, the net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been reduced by 32% and 43%. The firm noted that earnings in the second half of 2025 are expected to be lower than high expectations, with growth in the Americas slowing down. The conservative guidance reflects structural adjustments rather than profit fluctuations.