Bitcoin Faces Potential Bear Market Amid Bearish Divergence

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin (BTC) is at risk of entering a new bear market as several BTC price metrics indicate a "bearish divergence." On March 27, discussions on social media highlighted concerning signals from the Bitcoin Macro Index, developed by Capriole Investments. This index, introduced in 2022 by Charles Edwards, utilizes machine learning to analyze a wide range of metrics, excluding price data and technical analysis, to assess Bitcoin's relative value across historical cycles. Since late 2023, the index has been showing lower highs while BTC/USD prices have been reaching higher highs, suggesting a potential long-term peak. Edwards expressed concern over this trend but noted that he would reconsider his stance if the Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive. Bitcoin's price metrics have been struggling to recover, with various analytics sources pointing to macroeconomic challenges this year. A recent "Quicktake" blog post by onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant identified four onchain metrics currently in flux, indicating significant short to mid-term turbulence for Bitcoin. Contributor Burak Kesmeci noted that while these metrics suggest volatility, they do not imply that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top level. The metrics include Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), and the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), which turned bearish in February. For a positive shift, Kesmeci suggested that the IFP should rise above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA). Readers are reminded that this article does not offer investment advice, and any investment decisions should be made after conducting thorough research.