Bitcoin News Today: ‘Biggest Trade Deal Ever’ — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week

Bitcoin heads into the July close eyeing $120K as a U.S.–EU trade deal boosts markets. Here’s what traders are watching this week — from the Fed meeting to stablecoin liquidity signals.Key TakeawaysBitcoin price steadies near $119K with eyes on the $120K breakout, but $113K remains key downside risk.Fed meeting & PCE data could fuel volatility; Powell faces pressure to cut rates.US–EU trade deal lifts risk assets, pushing the S&P 500 to record highs.July BTC performance is strong but not historic, averaging similar gains to prior years.Stablecoin liquidity signals caution, suggesting BTC may need more inflows for a breakout.1. Bitcoin Bulls Hold $119K, But $113K Lingers as RiskBitcoin (BTC) started the week holding firm around $118,650, just below the $120K mark.Short-term outlook: Traders are watching for a bull flag confirmation after BTC closed the week at $119,450.Key level: $117K must hold for a push to new ATHs, while liquidity maps suggest $113K could be retested if support fails.Trader Crypto Tony noted:“If Bitcoin can tighten up and hold over $117,000, then I think we are good for new ATHs very soon.”2. Fed Meeting, GDP & PCE Data Set Up “Most Data-Packed Week of the Year”Markets are bracing for a macro-heavy week:Wednesday: Fed interest rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference.Thursday: The Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the PCE index, will be released.Q2 GDP data and corporate earnings add further catalysts.While no rate cut is expected this week, Powell faces pressure from Trump and others to pivot by September.3. US–EU Trade Deal Boosts Global Risk AppetiteThe U.S. and EU struck what leaders called the “biggest trade deal ever,” sending:S&P 500 futures to a record open above 6,400.Global markets rallying as tariff tensions with China were paused for 90 days.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the deal’s scale, noting the U.S. and EU now represent 44% of global GDP.4. July BTC Gains Solid, But August May Be QuieterBitcoin is up 11.3% in July 2025, slightly above the 12-year average July gain of 7.8%.August history: BTC averages just 1.75% returns, historically a cooling-off month.Analysts warn BTC must hold July’s breakout gains (above $109K) to maintain momentum into Q3.5. Stablecoin Liquidity Could Limit BTC UpsideOn-chain data from CryptoQuant shows the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) rising alongside BTC’s price.Interpretation: There’s less “dry powder” (fresh stablecoins) available to buy Bitcoin.Implication: Without new stablecoin inflows, BTC’s rally could slow until liquidity increases.“A continued rise in SSR may indicate that buying momentum will weaken in the future,” analyst Arab Chain explained.